With the start of the World Series, free agency is just days away – potentially. Officially, it starts immediately the following the final game. So who are the top free agents and where are they going? Here’s a look, numbers 50 through 26.
Photo Courtesy of Keith Allison via Flickr.com
#50.) Kelly Johnson, 2B
Johnson’s always shown solid walk rates throughout his career, but has largely disappointed throughout his six years. And twice – once in 2009 and again last season – he played barely replacement level. He’s another candidate that will have to settle on a one-year deal. He could fit in Philly, if Chase Utley shifts to third base.
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies, 1 year and $3.5 million
#49.) Roberto Hernandez, SP
As I previously wrote, Hernandez will most assuredly have his option declined. Like Oviedo, he got busted for fraud and sat out the majority of 2012. He’s had his ups and downs, but is a solid number four, league-average-ish starter.
Prediction: Kansas City Royals, 1 year an $4 million
#48.) Juan Oviedo, RP
The former Marlins closer hasn’t pitched since 2012, though not due to injury, and really hasn’t been much better than replacement level throughout his career. Some team may offer him the shot to earn the last spot in the pen and with the chance to earn his way up to seventh or eighth inning duty.
Prediction: Chicago Cubs, 1 year and $1.5 million
#47.) Carlos Villanueva, RP
Villanueva’s caught in a weird half-reliever, half-starter-type role, and for the most part has been a success at it. And, truthfully, there’s a lot of value in having a pitcher that can bounce between the roles. Toronto needs the depth and likely won’t let him walk.
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays, 2 years and 7.5 million
#46.) Joel Peralta, RP
If not for his age, 36, he’d likely be among the most coveted relievers on the market. He’s performed near All-Star caliber for arguably the last three seasons and may likely get a two-year deal from a contender to pitch the eighth inning.
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies, 2 years and $11 million
Actual: Tampa Bay Rays, 2 years and $6 million
#45.) Jeremy Guthrie, SP
The Royals are the type of team that can obsess about unearthing unwanted gems. And Guthrie, who bombed out in Colorado, recovered nicely in KC, going 5 and 3 with 3.16 ERA in 14 starts. There’s no way Dayton Moore will let him walk away.
Prediction: Kansas City Royals, 3 years and $31 million
Actual: Kansas City Royals, 3 years and $25 million
#44.) Scott Baker, SP
The Twins have a $9.25 million club option on Baker, but will likely decline it and try to rework a cheaper deal, one that may include a club option for 2014, and hope he can bounce completely back from Tommy John.
Prediction: Minnesota Twins, 1 year and $6.5 million (plus 2014 club option)
Actual: Chicago Cubs, 1 year and $5.5 million
#43.) Sean Burnett, RP
Burnett’s an above-average lefty that struggles a bit against righties. The Nationals likely won’t let him walk.
Prediction: Washington Nationals, 3 years and $9 million
Actual: Los Angeles Angels, 2 years and $9.5 million
#42.) Jose Valverde, RP
Valverde, who turns 35 in March, showed major signs of regression in 2012. His strikeout rate, which is nearly 10 per nine innings throughout his career, slumped all the way down to 6.26, and his SIERA, 4.42, was a career-worst. He’s old, and will likely be vastly overpaid. And maybe even by the Tigers. They should let him walk and let him head back to Houston. But I’m not so sure they will.
Prediction: Detroit Tigers, 2 years and $22 million
#41.) Ryan Madson, RP
Whoops, how much did that near re-signing cost Madson? Cincinnati could pick up their half of the $11 million option, but it’d be a surprise – a shock, really. A team like the Cubs could swoop in and sign him to a one-year deal and hoped to flip him to a contender at the deadline for a midlevel prospect.
Prediction: Chicago Cubs, 1 year and $7 million
Actual: Los Angeles Angeles, 1 year and $3.5 million (plus incentives)
#40.) Jonathan Broxton, RP
Broxton’s no longer a dominant reliever posting double-digit K-rates, but he turned in a respectable season, compensating for his declining strikeout rate by improving his command, to a career best 2.64 BB/9. He ended up saving 27 games for the Royals and Reds and would have been a fair more reasonable answer for Arizona instead of Heath Bell, which essentially cost them Chris Young.
Prediction: Minnesota Twins, 2 years and $15.5 million
Actual: Cincinnati Reds, 3 years and $21 million
#39.) Erik Bedard, SP
A lot went right for the Pirates this season, finishing with 79 wins, most since 1997. But as the team went into a second half fade – again – they released Bedard, easily one of the worst – if not worst – moves made by Neal Huntington in 2012. And it’s more of an indictment on the front office as a whole, releasing a league-average starting pitcher because of an unsightly – and meaningless – ERA. He averaged just below one strikeout per inning and all three of his ERA estimators – FIP, xFIP an SIERA – were between 4.05 and 4.12. He clearly can’t be counted on for anything more than 100 or so innings. But there are a lot worse gambles on the market.
Prediction: Kansas City Royals, 1 year and $4 million
#38.) Grant Balfour, RP
Another solid season for the soon-to-be 35-year-old, and for $4 million there’s a very strong likelihood that A’s exercise his club option. Otherwise, he could arguably be the elite reliever on the market.
Prediction: Oakland A’s exercise $4 million club option
#37.) Joakim Soria, RP
Soria lost all of 2012 to elbow surgery, as if the perennially rebuilding Royals needed more confirmation that they should have traded their elite closer years ago. He’s scheduled to hit the market assuming KC declines his $8 million club option. And even though Soria regressed a bit in 2010, he’s still a potentially elite backend option – if teams are willing to wade through the necessary bumps that come with Tommy John recoveries.
Prediction: Boston Red Sox, 1 year (plus 2014 club option) and $6.5 million
Actual: Texas Rangers, 2 years and $8 million (plus option)
#36.) Francisco Rodriguez, RP
K-Rod posted the highest ERA of his career, at 4.38. But his rate stats – 9.0 K/9 and 3.88 BB/9 – were still pretty solid. Plus, his HR/9, 1.00, and strand rate, 69.6%, were significantly higher than his career norms. He may look to sign a one year deal to help rebuild his value in hopes of signing a multi-year deal following 2013.
Prediction: Miami Marlins, 1 year and $7.5 million
#35.) Ichiro Suzuki, RF
The Yankees are widely believed to let Nick Swisher walk in free agency, and Ichiro, who looked revitalized in New York down the stretch, should fill the void – at least for the next two years.
Prediction: New York Yankees, 2 years and $26 million
#34.) Ryan Ludwick, OF
It was a rebound year of sorts for Ludwick, who hit .275/.346/.531 with 26 homeruns in 472 plate appearances for the Reds this past season. The right-handed bat would be an ideal fit for the left-handed heavy Indians lineup in the short team, but Cleveland was unwilling to go three years on Josh Willingham last offseason and could miss out on Ludwick because of it this offseason.
Prediction: Cleveland Indians, 2 years and $24 million
Actual: Cincinnati Reds, 2 years and $15 million
#33.) A.J. Pierzynski, C
The 15-year veteran had a career year at the plate, smashing 27 homeruns and hitting .278/.326/.501. Chicago has Tyler Flowers, who should at least be a league-average starter, waiting in the wings. And the White Sox would be wise to pass on Pierzynski, but they’ll probably re-sign him to a three-year deal.
Prediction: Chicago White Sox, 3 years and $34 million
#32.) Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP
He’s a lot like Roy Oswalt in the regard that he’s suffered from a lot of bad luck – 2.17 HR/9 and .336 BABIP – and had some fairly decent or better rates (8.08 K/9 and 3.94 BB/9). He’ll likely have to sign a one year deal, but it has the potential to be a real bargain.
Prediction: Seattle Mariners, 1 year and $8 million
#31.) Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B
The Youkilis-to-the-Indians talk has already surfaced via the Francona connection, and it makes sense: the Indians don’t have anyone to play first and has a desperate need for a right-handed bat.
Prediction: Cleveland Indians, 2 years and $26 million
#30.) Kyle Lohse, SP
Personally, I’m not buying into the whole notion that Lohse is set to “cash in” this offseason. He’s 34, has an up-and-down history, and even at his peak this year he barely topped 3.5 wins above replacement. It’s ridiculous that any team would consider throwing down a 5-year, $77 million deal for the right-hander this offseason. He’s has been linked to Milwaukee and could ultimately end up there – think Jeff Suppan all over again – or a backwards thinking team like the Dodgers could chase him too. This could easily go down as one of the worst contracts signed this offseason.
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers, 4 years and $56 million
#29.) Francisco Liriano, SP
The typical Kenny Williams-type risk – even though he just recently got promoted to team president – is equally tantalizing (9.59 K/9) and frustrating (5.00 B/9). His career has been marked by a couple highs (4.1 and 6.0 fWARs) and a lot of lows (four seasons in which he’s started 14 or more games and posted fWAR totals under two). He’ll likely look to sign a one year deal in hopes of reestablishing his long term value.
Prediction: San Diego Padres, 1 year and $6.5 million
#28.) Shaun Marcum, SP
Still relatively young – soon-to-be 31 – Marcum’s a solid performer when healthy, but he’s had trouble doing so throughout his career. He’s likely going to have to settle on a one year deal, maybe getting two if everything breaks right, but he could help plug the middle of someone’s rotation.
Prediction: Kansas City Royals, 1 year and $9 million.
#27.) Russell Martin, C
Martin has a power bat – at least when compared to some of his peers at the position – with enough speed on the base paths to keep pitchers honest, above-average walk rates, and a decent glove. Former manager Joe Torre has caught a lot of flak for riding Martin hard during his tenure with the Dodgers, but bad luck more than anything else the last two years had held the 29-year-old catcher back. His two-year BABIP is .238, the lowest in baseball and more than 60 points below is mark from 2006 to 2010. The Yankees’ young catchers are still two years away from the big leagues, and the market is a bit thin at the position making his an obvious choice to re-sign.
Prediction: New York Yankees, 3 years and $26 million
Actual: Pittsburgh Pirates, 2 years and $17 million
#26.) Cody Ross, RF
Ross, a solid outfielder that hovers in the 2.0- to 3.0-win range, had a good first season in Boston, hitting .267/.326/.481. He’ll turn 32 before the start of next season and probably has only two seasons left before decline sets in, but his outfield versatility only adds to his value.
Prediction: Boston Red Sox, 3 years and $27 million
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
For attempted humor, snarky comments, and baseball updates follow the site on Twitter, @ReleasePoints.
Or if you’re at work or just looking to kill more time check out the site’s homepage here or the Archives tab here.
#1.
releasepoints.wordpress.com 
Leave a comment