There’s been a fair amount of speculation surrounding designated hitter Travis Hafner’s future with the Cleveland Indians beyond this season, going back as far as March and as recently as August.
Photo Courtesy of Keith Allison via Flickr.com
Hafner, 35, is coming off of another injury-marred season, appearing in just 62 games this year and just 368 total since his four-year, $57 million deal began in 2009. Cleveland holds a $13 million option, which will undoubtedly be declined, and will be forced to pay just under $3 million, the price of his buyout.
But it doesn’t necessarily mean that his time in Cleveland is over.
Hafner, albeit in just 249 plate appearances, has been the third most productive hitter in the Cleveland lineup, batting .232/.349/.440. And his total offensive production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, has been 20% better than the league average.
And this isn’t just one year fluke either.
Since 2009, Hafner has essentially remained the same offensive performer year-in and year-out, never dropping below 15% better than the league average or above 25%. During that time period, his wRC+ is 122, better than, say, Curtis Granderson, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn, and Dustin Pedroia.
Obviously, the others have played in significantly more games. But the point is simple: despite the injuries, Hafner has been a very productive hitter, one that has yet to show any signs of decline too.
Below are his year-to-year peripherals, beginning with 2009:
|
YEAR |
BB% |
K% |
ISO |
BABIP |
|
2009 |
10.7% |
17.5% |
0.198 |
0.297 |
|
2010 |
11.0% |
20.3% |
0.172 |
0.332 |
|
2011 |
9.8% |
21.2% |
0.169 |
0.332 |
|
2012 |
12.4% |
18.1% |
0.208 |
0.240 |
If anything, he’s actually been quite unlucky this year, posting the worst batting average of balls in play, or BABIP, of his entire career.
The Indians clearly have more than a few holes on offense. And the fact that the farm system is nowhere close to burping up an above-average regular makes it all the more difficult for the always budget-conscience franchise. This time, though, Hafner will be smack dab right in the middle of something the team could afford.
The cost for one win above replacement is just about $4.5 million, meaning that if a franchise looked to upgrade a run-of-the-mill Triple-A player by one win it would cost that amount on the open market. Well, Hafner’s totaled just five wins above replacement per FanGraphs, or fWAR, over the last four seasons. Or just over one-win per year.
Hence, when he hits the open market he’s probably going to have to settle for a one year deal between $3 and $5 million. And because he’s called Cleveland home for so long – 10 years not, believe it or not – they might be able to swing a deal closer to lower end of the spectrum.
As for his replacement when – not if – he gets injured next year? For the love of Shoeless Joe Jackson, please let it be Cord Phelps – please! If not, they could plug in someone like Jared Goedert or Russ Canzler or go dumpster-diving at the end of free agency.
Either way, though, the front office hasn’t been lighting the world on fire with most of its transactions recently, but here’s a chance to sign a valuable big league hitter – albeit one that’s incredibly frail – on the cheap.
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