The Boston Red Sox are in last place in the AL East, a laughably preposterous thought prior to the season when the team entered with the second highest payroll in baseball. And, now, with the media circus in tow and questions abound, the franchise’s record stands at a miserable 66-81, marking the first time since 1997 that Boston posts a losing record and just the seventh since 1980.
Photo Courtesy of Keith Allison via Flickr.com
After ridding itself of four of its six most expensive contracts – at least those on a per annual basis – the team not only has plenty of money to spend (theoretically) but also has plenty of holes to fill, not to mention the incessantly nagging questions surrounding its manager, Bobby Valentine – which was practically doomed from the beginning.
So, what’s the future hold for the Sox? Is contention really out of the question for next season?
Despite the poor showing in 2012, there’s a solid foundation of team-controlled players to build around – if they choose to do so. Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Mike Aviles and Andrew Bailey can all be under control through at least 2014. Jacoby Ellsbury and Jarrod Saltalamacchia won’t hit the market until after 2013. And, of course, Will Middlebrooks and Felix Doubront are just rookies. There is certainly quite a bit of value that carries over — maybe more than most realize.
Of those, there are three – and maybe as many as five – players capable of posting above-average (3.0 to 4.0 fWAR) to All-Star caliber production (4.0 to 5.0 fWAR): Pedroia, Lester, and Ellsbury, and both Buchholz and Middlebrooks could potentially fall in that range next season as well. Saltalmacchia is fairly underrated; he has a league-average bat (100 wRC+ this season) with matching defense, a luxury from behind the plate. Doubront, who is just one of three left-handed starters to average at least one strikeout per inning, is also a bit underrated and is, at worst, a solid backend option in the rotation. Bailey – when healthy – is still productive. And Aviles, despite the two-win total this season, is more of utility-type than starter, but is certainly a useful player.
And of Boston’s free-agents-to-be, there are two – David Ortiz and Cody Ross – that remain strong possibilities to resign, both capable of posting two-plus win seasons. Ortiz will likely have to settle for a two-year, $30 million deal, and Ross will probably get something in three-year, $36 million range.
Looking at the team as a whole, there are between three to five holes that need to be filled.
James Loney isn’t the answer at first base – clearly – and may be brought back in a platoon role next season. Aviles is miscast as a starter at shortstop, and defensive wunderkind Jose Iglesias will probably need another year of seasoning in the minors to polish his offensive skill set. Left field is wide-open, and it seems doubtful the team would stand pat with either Ryan Kalish or Ryan Sweeney as starters heading into 2013. And they’ll need one, maybe two starting pitchers – John Lackey is nothing more than a crapshoot now.
But, again, the team has money to spend.
By dealing Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett and Carl Crawford, the franchise cut nearly $50 million from the 2013 payroll. Kevin Youkilis’ contract ($13M option for next season) is no longer an issue and Daisuke Matsuzaka’s in the last year of his deal ($10M this year). That’s just over $70 million cut from next year’s books.
And there are free agent and potential trade options that wouldn’t break Boston’s bank either.
B.J. Upton, a solid defender in center, would be an elite glove in left and hovered around 10% above the league average offensively the past three seasons and will probably command a reasonable four-year deal. Nick Swisher, a free agent, and Shin-Soo Choo, a potential trade candidate, could push Ross to left, a position he’s played before, though Swisher is looking for big money as a free agent and Choo will do the same following 2013. Carlos Pena or Mike Napoli (buy low) could plug the hole at first. And Edwin Jackson, Joe Blanton, a statistical favorite of mine, Ryan Dempster, Hiroki Kuroda, Shawn Marcum, Brandon McCarthy (a Bill James favorite?) and Anibal Sanchez could all potentially fill out the rotation. Zack Greinke is probably out of the question.
So, could the Red Sox contend next? Hell yeah – if they choose to do so. This isn’t an organization that needs to be stripped down before being built back up again. Instead, it’s one with a strong base of players that needs a little bit of tweaking. Eighty-eight wins in 2013 could be a reasonable starting point, depending how the organization handles the offseason.
But first, the managerial issues need to be dealt with, a far more damning point than anything else.
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