Well, Jonathan Sanchez has had one helluva season in Kansas City. And not in a good way either. After throwing 53.1 horrific innings – 7.76 ERA, 6.08 K/9, 7.43 BB/9, and a league worst 6.10 SIERA – the Kansas City Royals designated Sanchez for assignment, potentially ending his brief time with the team. The Royals now have 10 days to trade or release him. If he clears waivers, the team can offer him a minor league assignment, though he doesn’t have to accept it.
Photo Courtesy of twinsdaily.com
In hindsight, the offseason trade that brought Sanchez, along with Ryan Verdugo, to Kansas City in exchange for current All-Star MVP Melky Cabrera parallels the left-handers results on the mound. But let’s not forget something, either: this wasn’t a bad trade at the time. Actually, when the deal was made – November 7 – it looked like this could help solidify a young Royals rotation.
First, though, let’s take a step back.
The Royals practically picked Cabrera off of the scrap heap, signing him to a one year, $1.25 million deal. He was coming off of the worst season of career, hitting .255/.317/.354 for the Braves and posting a negative fWAR total (-1.0). Combined with his previous two season (2008 and 2009), Cabrera had hit .260/.319/.372 in over 1500 plate appearances. The Braves had determined that he was replaceable, and at that time he was. Fourth outfielders aren’t terribly hard to find.
Well, after moving to Miami, in part to train with Alex Rodriguez that offseason, Cabrera had the best year of his career up to that point, hitting .305/.339/.470 and totaling more than four wins above replacement. His BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, last season was .332, about 40 or so points higher than his career average. His walk rate had declined, to 5.0%. And for the second consecutive season, he posted a negative UZR/150 total in the outfield. Truthfully, there were more than a few red flags suggesting that this “breakout season” was a bit fluky, maybe not as repeatable.
The Royals, with Lorenzo Cain (.312/.380/.497 in Triple-A) waiting in the wings, deemed Cabrera expendable and flipped him to the Giants for Sanchez, who was coming off of a bit of a down season. It represented a good time to sell high on Cabrera and buy low on Sanchez.
Look, Sanchez, despite the elite strikeout rates, is never going to be anything more than a league average starter. His command just isn’t there, and at the age of 29 it probably never will be. But there is value in adding a pitcher of that caliber to a rotation like the Royals. Their young pitching wasn’t developed at the point – who knows if it ever will now – and the organization needed someone to take the ball every fifth day. Sanchez was supposed to be that guy. He was in the middle of his prime, averaged more than a strikeout an inning, and let’s be honest, the going rate for him if he had been a free agent following the 2010 season would have probably been something north of the deal Jorge De La Rosa got from the Rockies, a three year, $31 million deal, assuming De La Rosa picks up his player option.
At that time – and, yes, I know Sanchez was coming off of a 5.86 BB/9 season – this deal seemed like it could be very beneficial for the Royals. Now, obviously, it hasn’t turned out that way. Dayton Moore thought he was buying low on Sanchez; he wasn’t. Who knows if Sanchez has even bottomed out yet? But, truthfully, I’d make that deal at that time too. Sometimes you just misread a chance to buy low.
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