Forget about the questions, the numerous ifs or whens, Alex Gordon is going to regress in 2012. That much we know, the question is: How much, exactly, is he going regress?
Photo Courtesy of Keith Allison via Flickr.com
After going from the second overall pick in the 2005 draft, the subsequent “can’t miss” labels and George Brett-franchise-savior comparisons to prospect bust, doomed to wander the lists of infamy, Gordon had the type of breakout season in 2011 many people had predicted all the years prior.
The Kansas City left fielder, a position he moved to in 2010, hit an impressive .303/.376/.502; his total offensive production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 41% above the league average. Mix in his surprisingly strong defensive numbers – his URZ/150 total, 10, was the fourth highest among the position – and his total value was nearly seven wins above replacement, second among left fielders and tied for ninth among all position players.
Despite the outburst of offensive production, there’s one very large red flag: Gordon’s batting average on balls in play, or BABIP, was .358, the ninth highest mark in baseball, and 63 points above the league average. It also represents an unsustainable mark for a player of Gordon’s caliber.
Granted, this isn’t Austin Jackson’s 2010 .396 BABIP, a season in which he hit .293/.340/.400 but regressed to .249/.317/.374 last season as his BABIP dropped nearly 60 points. But there is a significant portion of Gordon’s BABIP that reeks of luck. How much?
Between 1990 and 2010, there have been 241 players that had a batting average on balls in play of .350 or better, five of them with similar peripherals (walk rate between eight and 12%; strikeout rate between 18% and 22%, and a speed score between four and six) as Gordon. Those five: Felix Jose (1991: .305/.360/.438, BABIP of .365), Bernard Gilkey (1996: .317/.393/.562, BABIP of .356), Rich Becker (1996: .291/.372/.434, BABIP of .353), Andres Galarraga (1997: .318/.389/.585, BABIP of .356), and Travis Hafner (2004: .311/.410/.583, BABIP of .350). Admittedly, it is a small comparison size, but it should provide a reasonable enough guess towards how Gordon’s BABIP will act in 2012.
Of those five players, four – Jose, Becker, Galarraga, and Hafner – saw a modest decline in BABIP, less than a 23-point decline, their next season. The fifth, Gilkey, saw the largest decline, 80 points. His career rate, .304, was also the lowest total among the five as well, a number that is also lower than that of Gordon’s mark during his three full seasons (2007, 2008, and 2011), 331. Gordon’s mark during those seasons is also very close to the career marks of Becker (.333), Galarraga (.336), Hafner (.318), and Jose (.330).
So how much is Gordon’s BABIP likely to decline? Oh, about 10 to 15 points, to .340 or so. But his overall production is also likely to remain the same despite the regression.
Gordon’s walk rate in 2011, 9.7%, is about two points lower than the totals his previous three seasons so that could likely progress upward next season. Meaning: his OBP could remain the same.
Again, admittedly, this isn’t a perfect study, but it does provide a worthy estimate into the type of regression – which isn’t much – Gordon’s BABIP is likely to undergo. Overall, expect Gordon to hit .290/.370/.490. His projected 2012 OPS, .860, is only slightly lower than last season’s .879. Not much regression at all.
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